We Zimbabweans could be fooling ourselves into a dream of a prosperous free democratic Zimbabwe after Mugabe is gone.- that is if he goes at all. The hard fact is that democracy, while a necessary step, will not deliver development or prosperity. Haiti is good example, of black slaves still struggling 200 years after freeing themselves.
Let us examine this matter. My prediction is Mugabe forcing a win, avails to SADC as ready to implement SADC negotiated agreements, demanding economic rescue package and anointing a successor under constitutional amendment 18. At this point SADC declares the Zimbabwe question is resolved. If the democratic forces win the first task of the government would be to review the economy, to take stock who is where, what is there, who is owed, what contracts were awarded, to who and so on? The forming of government is a huge undertaking, staffing the departments, cutting costs, routing out bad eggs, investigating corrupt practices, a possible Truth and Reconciliation process, drafting democratic new laws, amid the threat of coups from entrenched Mugabe diehards and sky rocketing expectations from hungry flock. In both cases Zimbabweans in the Diaspora will now be forced to return to rebuild their country. A couple of millions may pour in, forced out of SADC countries. In both cases about US$50 billion is required to stabilize the economy, and to steer recover.
Who will deliver the economy and where will the money come from? As much as 80% of the economy of Zimbabwe is controlled by South African companies. The production of goods sold in shops are largely in South Africa. Our survey showed that the 70% of the refugees who are trapped between Zimbabwe and South Africa are below 40 years of age, the productive age. Unless we can accommodate this productive age somewhere Zimbabwe economy will suffer permanently. South Africa will continue to dominate, draining foreign exchange. To start factories requires targeted money, roads, electricity, water and with fuel to run engines. This money is not available in Zimbabwe. The real source of big funds is the international money markets. However the country has to have a good international rating. Zimbabwe has the worst or no rating. Applicants resident in Zimbabwe will be restricted from accessing these international funds, until the rating improves perhaps 10 years to 15 years into democracy. We have not heard Zimbabweans articulating the development plan. What is the dream and how is it created?
A government after 29 March, be it Mugabe, would negotiate with Brentwood institutions for reprieve of current loans, a time consuming process, and perhaps negotiate for balance of payment support but they will not put much more. In any case money given to the government is for supporting government operations, health, education, repairing roads etc, not going for production. Who will finance the poor Zimbabweans to start factories? Who will create jobs.
The Diaspora formations have a plan. It was approved at the Global conference in December 2007 and there are formations to work on it. We will intensify on it after the 29 March elections. The problem is that democratic forces in Zimbabwe are ignoring the Diaspora efforts. In fact there is a clique that is just about as bad as Mugabe.
PLEASE READ MR ZUNGA'S PLEA FOR A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO ZIMBABWE'S PROBLEMS!
